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Programmes > DRA > Regional office for Europe > SEECOF-III

South-East European Climate Outlook Forum
(SEECOF)

Guidance for participants

SEECOF-III comprises 3 steps, which all require on-line participation (cf. SEECOF-3 outline).

STEP 1

Step 1 deals with the qualitative verification of the SEECOF-II Winter outlook (December 2009 – Februar 2010). Facilitated by Mr. Branko Bijelic, Ms. Mirjam Vujadinovic, Ms. Aleksandra Krzic, and Ms. Ana Vukovic, participants are invited to provide by 30 April 2010:

• information on high-impact events of the last winter season,
• brief assessments of the correctness of the SEECOF-II outlook, and
• comments on user perceptions of the SEECOF-II outlook.

Information should be sent to Mr. Branko Bijelic (branko.bijelic@hidmet.gov.rs) and Ms. Mirjam Vujadinovic (mirjam.vujadinovic@hidmet.gov.rs).  

Based on participants' input, the monitoring results of the RA VI Pilot RCC Node on Climate Monitoring and own considerations, Ms. Mirjam Vujadinovic will provide a qualitative summary of the correctness and perception of the SEECOF-II outlook by 7 May 2010.

In order to facilitate the assessment, the following Monthly bulletins, provided by the RA VI Pilot RCC Node on Climate Monitoring/DWD, can be used:

	Monthly Bulletin on the Climate in WMO Region VI - Dec 2009
	Monthly Bulletin on the Climate in WMO Region VI - Jan 2010
	Monthly Bulletin on the Climate in WMO Region VI - Feb 2010

The files can also be accessed via http://www.dwd.de/ecsm, button 'monthly RA VI Bulletin'. In addition to the Bulletins you will be able to access a lot more information on the Winter months within the ECSM system (ECSM: European Climate System Monitoring; the ECSM system is an interim technical platform of the RA VI Pilot RCC Node on Climate Monitoring, run by DWD).

Final report of Step 1: ANALYSIS AND VERIFICATION OF SEECOF-2 CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR 2009-10 WINTER SEASON FOR SOUTH-EAST EUROPE (SEE)

ANALYSIS AND VERIFICATION OF SEECOF-2 CLIMATE OUTLOOK - Country Reports

 

STEP 2

Step 2 comprises an assessment of the current state of the climate including large-scale climate patterns worldwide and assessments of its likely evolution in the course of the next months. For this, a draft for discussion is provided by Dmitry Kiktev (GPC and RA VI Pilot RCC Node on LRF/Roshydromet; e-mail address:kiktev@mecom.ru):

	Current weather and climate conditions - first draft
	Current weather and climate conditions - update, 05.05.2010
	Maps with GPC Moscow probabilistic JJA 2010 forecasts
	Maps with GPC Moscow probabilistic JJA 2010 forecasts - Update 17 May 2010
	Maps with GPC Moscow probabilistic JJA 2010 forecasts - Update 28 May 2010

In addition, the latest WMO update on El Niño/La Niña will also be used in the assessment.

In the following two weeks (as from 20 April 2010) participants are invited to contribute to the discussion of this draft. This discussion is moderated by Diana Mijuskovic (RHMS, Serbia; diana.mijuskovic@hidmet.gov.rs). Based on your inputs the final assessment will be elaborated by Diana Mijuskovic and Anahit Hovsepyan by 7 May 2010.

FINAL ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT STATE OF THE CLIMATE INCLUDING LARGE SCALE CLIMATE PATTERNS WORLDWIDE AND ITS LIKELY EVOLUTION IN THE COURSE OF THE NEXT MONTHS

 

STEP 3

Step 3 aims at building the consensus forecast for Summer 2010. A first draft for discussion will be provided by J.P. Céron (GPC and RA VI Pilot RCC Node on LRF/Meteo-France;e-mail address:jean-pierre.ceron@meteo.fr) and Mr. Goran Pejanovic by 7th of May.

	First draft MJJ outlook for discussion from Meteo-France (7 May 2010)
	Second draft MJJ outlook for discussion from Meteo-France (12 May 2010)
	Draft JJA seasonal outlook for discussion from Meteo-France (17 May 2010)

In a 2,5 weeks discussion period afterwards, participants are invited to feed in their own outlooks and contribute to the discussions in order to come to a consensus outlook. The discussion will be moderated by Anahit Hovsepyan (Email-address: anahit_hovs@yahoo.com). From 25 to 28 May the final version of the consensus statement will be elaborated by Diana Mijuskovic and Anahit Hovsepyan and on 28 May the outlook will be released (WMO and SEEVCCC WebSites; press release - details to be discussed).