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South-East European Climate Outlook Forum
(SEECOF)

SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR 2010 SUMMER SEASON OVER

SOUTH-EAST EUROPEAN AND CAUCASUS REGION

 

TEMPERATURE

The outlook is relevant for relatively large areas, since the inconsistency among the models is greater at smaller scales. There is a certain degree of consistency among the global model forecasts of surface air temperature over most part of South-Eastern Europe in the coming summer season. However, less degree of agreement among the global models is noted in temperature forecasts over the Caucasus and adjacent region.

Based on these signals and interpretation of the potential links of climate variability over South-Eastern Europe with other global factors, it has been concluded that prevailing temperatures during 2010 summer season over the South-Eastern Europe are very likely to be above normal. For the eastern part of Mediterranean basin, Turkey and Caucasus region, no confident signal is detected in the forecasts, but there is lower probability that temperature shall be above normal in this region.

 

PRECIPITATION

Like in the case of temperatures, there is some degree of consistency among the global model forecasts of precipitation over most part of South-Eastern Europe and the Caucasus region in the coming summer season.

Summer season precipitation over the most part of the region is expected to be near normal. However, below normal precipitation is more probable in the south of the Balkan Peninsula, Turkey and Caucasus region. Some probability exists for parts of Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania to receive above normal precipitation.

 

CONCLUSION

Summer of 2010 is very likely to be warmer than normal in the prevailing part of South East Europe and Caucasus region. Precipitation over the most part of the region is expected near normal with some probability of below normal rainfall over Turkey, South of Balkan Peninsula and Caucasus.  

2010 Summer Temperature Outlook *		2010 Summer Precipitation Outlook *
	Above normal		Above normal
	Normal to above normal		Normal
	Normal		Below normal
	Area outside SEECOF
* The graphical representation of climate outlook in this statement is only for guidance purposes, and does not imply any opinion whatsoever concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

Download the full SEECOF-3 final statement in pdf format