DPFS_Manual_Appendix-II-6
OVERALL LIST OF OUTPUT PRODUCTS REQUIRED FOR INTERNATIONAL EXCHANGE FROM GDPFS CENTRES
Within the constraints of technology and programme requirements, model output should be supplied at the highest possible resolution.
1. ANALYSES
Surface (including synoptic features)
Within the constraints of technology and programme requirements, model output should be supplied at the highest possible resolution.
1. ANALYSES
Surface (including synoptic features)
| 925 hPa 850 hPa 700 hPa 500 hPa 400 hPa 300 hPa 250 hPa 150 hPa 100 hPa 70 hPa 50 hPa 30 hPa 20 hPa 10 hPa |
Parameters: Pressure (P)/geopotential height (H), temperature 200 hPa (T), wind (W) and humidity (R), as appropriate and applicable |
Tropopause and maximum wind or tropopause and vertical wind shear
Relative topography, in particular the thickness 500/1 000 hPa
Jet streams
Digitized cloud mosaics
Mapped radiometric data
Stability
Precipitable water
Snow depth
Changes to 500 hPa, 24 hours
Changes to relative topography, thickness 500/1 000 hPa, 24 hours
Freezing level
Pressure changes, three hours
Pressure changes, 12 and/or 24 hours
Precipitation areas, six hours
Precipitation areas, 24 hours
Sferics
Radar echoes
Nephanalyses
Sea-surface temperature
Land-surface temperature
Snow and ice cover
Storm alerts
Sea ice
State of sea
Storm surge
Thermoclines
Superstructure icing
Top of Ekman layer
Surface air trajectories
850 hPa air trajectories
700 hPa air trajectories
500 hPa air trajectories
Health risk index for travellers
Stratospheric ozone bulletins
Assessments of satellite ground-truthing radiation experiments
Climate-related analyses (e.g. climate system monitoring and climate normals)
2. FIVE-DAY, 15-DAY AND 30-DAY MEAN ANALYSED VALUES AND ANOMALIES
| Surface 850 hPa 500 hPa |
Parameters: P/H, T, W and R, as appropriate and applicable |
Sea-surface temperature anomaly
Storm surge
Sea-surface temperature
Thermoclines
Sea ice
Superstructure icing
Three-dimensional trajectories with particle locations at synoptic hours for EER
Time integrated pollutant concentration within the 500 m layer above ground in three time periods up to 72 hours for EER
Total deposition up to 72 hours
(a) Full set or subset of EPS members’ variables and levels for requesting WMO Members for specific applications.
(b) Relevant post-processed fields from sequence of daily output (e.g. indices of monsoon onset, droughts, tropical storm activity, extratropical storm track activity)
(c) Extended-range forecasts (levels and parameters as appropriate with 5-, 10-, 15- or 30-day mean values as applicable)
3. PLOTTED DATA
Plotted surface data (three-hourly)
Plotted upper-air data (850, 700, ..., 100 hPa)
Tabulated winds
Aerological diagrams
Plotted surface data (three-hourly)
Plotted upper-air data (850, 700, ..., 100 hPa)
Tabulated winds
Aerological diagrams
4. FORECASTS
| Surface (including synoptic features) 925 hPa 850 hPa 700 hPa 500 hPa 400 hPa 300 hPa 250 hPa 200 hPa 150 hPa 100 hPa 70, 50, 30, 20 10 hPa |
Parameters: P/H, T, W and R, as appropriate and applicable |
Jet-stream location and tropopause/layer of maximum wind
Significant weather
Relative topography, thickness 500/1 000 hPa
NOTE: The above list includes products which are required as part of the ICAO World Area Forecast System in accordance with requirements determined by ICAO.
Freezing level
Vorticity
Vertical motion
Areal distribution of cloudiness
Precipitation location, occurrence, amount and type
Sequences at specific locations (time diagrams) at the surface and aloft of T, P, W and R
Vorticity advection, temperature/thickness advection, vertical motion, stability indices, moisture distribution and other derived parameters
Tropical storm positions and intensities
River stage, discharge and ice phenomena
Tropical depression and easterly wave positions and movement
Four-to-10-day outlook for T, W, R and precipitation
Forecasts of probability of precipitation and temperature extremes for mid-latitudes and subtropical areas or forecasts of cloudiness, temperature range and precipitation probability for tropical areas
State of sea
Significant weather
Relative topography, thickness 500/1 000 hPa
NOTE: The above list includes products which are required as part of the ICAO World Area Forecast System in accordance with requirements determined by ICAO.
Freezing level
Vorticity
Vertical motion
Areal distribution of cloudiness
Precipitation location, occurrence, amount and type
Sequences at specific locations (time diagrams) at the surface and aloft of T, P, W and R
Vorticity advection, temperature/thickness advection, vertical motion, stability indices, moisture distribution and other derived parameters
Tropical storm positions and intensities
River stage, discharge and ice phenomena
Tropical depression and easterly wave positions and movement
Four-to-10-day outlook for T, W, R and precipitation
Forecasts of probability of precipitation and temperature extremes for mid-latitudes and subtropical areas or forecasts of cloudiness, temperature range and precipitation probability for tropical areas
State of sea
Storm surge
Sea-surface temperature
Thermoclines
Sea ice
Superstructure icing
Three-dimensional trajectories with particle locations at synoptic hours for EER
Time integrated pollutant concentration within the 500 m layer above ground in three time periods up to 72 hours for EER
Total deposition up to 72 hours
4.1 Ensemble prediction system products
4.1.1 Products for short range and medium range
(a)GLOBAL PRODUCTS FOR ROUTINE DISSEMINATION (Period for all fields: forecast D+0 to D+10 (12-hour intervals) at highest resolution possible)
Probabilities of:
(i) Precipitation exceeding thresholds 1, 5, 10, 25 and 50 mm/24 hours
(ii) 10 m sustained wind and gusts exceeding thresholds 10, 15 and 25 m s–1
(iii) T850 anomalies with thresholds -4, -8, +4 and +8 K with respect to a reanalysis climatology specified by the producing Centre
Ensemble mean (EM) + spread (standard deviation) of Z500, PMSL, Z1000, vector wind at 850 and 250 hPa Tropical storm tracks (lat/long locations from EPS members)
(b)MODEL FIELDS Full set or subset of EPS members’ variables and levels for requesting WMO Members for specific applications.
(c) OTHER GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS Location-specific time series of temperature, precipitation, wind speed, depicting the most likely solution and an estimation of uncertainty (“EPSgrams”). The definition, method of calculation and the locations should be documented.
4.1.2 Products for extended range
ENSEMBLE MEANS ANOMALIES/SPREAD
One-week averages and the monthly mean (all anomalies with respect to model climate):
Tropical SST
Standard ENSO/indices
Z500 and Z1000, precipitation, T850 and surface temperature
Probabilities:
Terciles: above, below, normal (with respect to model climate)
Precipitation
Z500
Z1000
T850 and surface temperature
Model fields:
(a) Full set or subset of EPS members’ variables and levels for requesting WMO Members for specific applications.
(b) Relevant post-processed fields from sequence of daily output (e.g. indices of monsoon onset, droughts, tropical storm activity, extratropical storm track activity)
(c) Extended-range forecasts (levels and parameters as appropriate with 5-, 10-, 15- or 30-day mean values as applicable)
4.2 Long-range forecast products
Minimum list of LRF products to be made available by Global Producing Centres (GPCs):
FORECAST PRODUCTS
NOTE: It is recognized that some centres may provide more information than the list including, for example, daily data or hindcast data.
Basic properties:
Temporal resolution: Averages, accumulations or frequencies over 1-month or longer periods (seasons)
Spatial resolution: 2.5° × 2.5° NOTE: Selected to match resolution of current verification data.
Spatial coverage: Global (Separate areas of interest to users, down to subregions of a continent or ocean basin, may be provided on special request from Members.)
Lead time: Any lead times between 0 and 4 months (Definition of lead time: for example, a three-monthly forecast issued on 31 December has a lead time of 0 months for a January-to-March forecast, and a lead time of 1 month for a February-to-April forecast.)
Issue frequency: Monthly or at least quarterly
Output types: Either rendered images (e.g. forecast maps and diagrams) or digital data. GRIB-2 format should be used for products posted on FTP sites or disseminated through the GTS.
Indications of skill including hindcast should be provided in accordance with recommendations from CBS on the standardized verification system (Attachment II.8). The minimum required is level 1 and level 2 verification. The verification of the Niño3.4 index will only apply to those centres producing such indices. However, GPCs are encouraged to provide level 3 verification. Verification results over the hindcast period are mandatory.
Content of basic forecast output: (Some products are intended as directly meeting NMS requirements with regard to information needed for end-user applications (direct or further processed); others are to assist the contributing global centres in product comparison and in the development of multimodel ensembles. These products are regarded as feasible from current systems.)
(a) Calibrated outputs from ensemble prediction systems showing the mean and spread of the distribution for:
- 2-metre air temperature over the globe;
- Sea-surface temperature;
- Total precipitation;
- Z500, MSLP, T850.
NOTE: These fields are to be expressed as departures from normal model climate.
(b) Calibrated probability information for forecast categories for:
- 2-metre air temperature over the globe;
- SST (atmospheric coupled models only);
- Total precipitation.
NOTES:
1. The minimum requirement is (b); (a) should be provided, at least, by request.
2. Tercile categories should be provided, consistent with present capabilities. Information for larger numbers of categories (e.g. deciles) is foreseen, however, as capabilities increase and to match better the anticipated end-user requirements. These targets are implied also for forecasts from statistical/empirical models.
3. Information on how category boundaries are defined should be made available.
4. “Calibrated” implies correction based on systematic errors in model climatology, using at least 15 years of retrospective forecasts.