World Climate Services Programme  Climate Applications and Services

First WMO Workshop on Operational Climate Prediction

9-11 November 2015, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India

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Concept Note (pdf) • Agenda (pdf) • Objectives • Presentations

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Introduction

In recent years WMO Commission for Basic Systems (CBS) and Commission for Climatology (CCl) have significantly strengthened their cooperation in the establishment of designated centres responsible for generating and delivering long-range forecasts and other climate information. These operational prediction centres as well as research communities include Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts (GPCLRFs), Regional Climate Centres (RCCs), Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs), National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WGSIP), the World Weather Research Programme and other institutions engaged in real-time climate prediction.

It has been proposed to organize a workshop, which will bring together representatives of above mentioned centres and institutions dealing with operational climate prediction in order to facilitate increased interaction between and among existing centres and the associated research communities, leading to better collective capability to meet the climate information needs of decision-makers. The workshop will cover operational prediction on sub-seasonal to longer time-scales in the context of contributing to the Climate Services Information System (CSIS) pillar of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). The workshop will also help consolidate the contributions from the WMO Technical Commissions, particularly the CBS, CCl and the Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS).

Objectives of the Workshop

The workshop is the first in series of workshops on operational climate predictions, with the objectives to:

1. communicate developmental efforts in operational climate prediction with a major focus on sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting,
2. identify research needs, share operational status, potential impediments and best practices in the uptake of data produced by GPCLRFs by RCCs, RCOFs, NMHSs and by the research community, and
3. develop a framework for best-practice guidance document for generating regional climate outlooks from the diverse sources of prediction information available.

In addition to the above, the workshop will address incorporation of recent research advances when developing new operational forecast products. It also intends to consider the emerging possibilities for decadal prediction and the associated operational requirements.

Presentations

Monday 9 November 2015

Opening session

• Operational Climate predictions of ENSO and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), by Sulochana Gadgil

Session 1: Societal context for long-range predictions and review of Brasilia workshop

• Global Framework for Climate Services, by Madhavan Rajeevan
• Climate Services Information System, by Rupa Kumar Kolli
• Review of recommendations from the Brasilia workshop (2013) and introduction to programme for the current workshop, by Richard Graham

Session 2: Research efforts and advances in long-range predictions

• Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S), by Yuhei Takaya
• Seasonal, multi-year and decadal predictions, by Richard Graham

Session 3: Overview of infrastructure for long-range predictions

• Overview of Global Data Processing and Forecast System (GDPFS) and WMO infrastructure for long-range predictions, by Abdoulaye Harou
• Overview and current status of Global Seasonal Climate Update, by Arun Kumar
• The EU Copernicus programme, by Laura Ferranti
• Overview and current status of Climate Services Toolkit, by Rupa Kumar Kolli

Session 4: Review of current operational practices for producing long-range forecasts

• Summary of questionnaire, by Richard Graham
• NMHS 1, by Boni Narcisse Kindia
• NMHS 2, by Than Than Naing
• NMHS 3, by Shanice Bedward
• NMHS 4, by Liwanag Remedios Ciervo
• CA-COF, by Patricia Ramírez

Tuesday 10 November 2015

Session 4: Review of current operational practices for producing long-range forecasts

• RCOF 2 : ASEANCOF, by Raizan Rahmat
• ROCF 3 : CARICOF, by Adrian Trotman
• RCC-Africa, by Andre Kamga
• RA VI RCC-Network, by Dmitry Kiktev
• RCC-Tokyo, by Arata Endo
• CPC, by Wassila Thiaw
• CMC, by Bertrand Denis
• BoM, by Robert Smalley

Wednesday 11 November 2015

Session 5 Summary and recommendations of breakout sessions

• Global Seasonal Climate Update
• Requirements for Climate Services Toolkit
• Framework for a guidance document for recommended long-range prediction practices based on the review of current long-range forecast practices