Sponsors of the project: AusAID, SPREP, WMO, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Fiji Meteorological Service, French Polynesia Meteorological Service (Meteo-France), Meteorological Service of New Zealand Limited, US National Weather Service, Pacific Region.

The goal of the project was to improve the Pacific NMSs. The objectives of the project were:

• Identify national, regional, & international obligations, especially relating to: weather services; climate change and variability; international cooperation; and national development;
• Determine capacity of each service to meet these obligations and related needs; and
• Present a range of options for projects suitable for donor agencies to undertake to address the needs.

Outputs specified for the project were:

• Single report identifying:
  • National/regional/international obligations and needs relating to meteorological Services and capacity of each NMS to meet these;
  • An integrated range of project concepts to address these needs

Most Pacific Island Countries (PICs) may be categorized as microstates and micro-economies with agriculture, forestry, fisheries, tourism, small-scale manufacturing, and mining as the main components of the cash economy. Their economies are characterised by a fairly large subsistence component, mainly agriculture and fishing. While they may all be classified as micro-economies, there is significant range in the composition and size of the economies – commercial agriculture, forestry and mining is confined largely to the countries with larger, more mountainous islands, while the smaller islands and coral atolls are dependent on tourism and fishing. Foreign aid forms a large part of the annual national public expenditure in most countries.

Their economies and social activities are highly sensitive to weather and climate. Severe weather phenomena which adversely affect the economy and the society are:- tropical cyclones, droughts, floods, and prolonged heavy rain (not necessarily associated with cyclones). National activities which are particularly sensitive and need to respond to fluctuations in weather and climate are air, sea , and road transportation, disaster management, energy, and water resources. Climate variability (seasonal to interannual scale) featured strongly as a very significant new area of concern among users of weather and climate information, especially in respect of severe weather. Users generally appear not to be concerned greatly with climate change except in the context of climate variability. Many users do not see a distinction between the two.

The main concerns of users that surfaced in most countries were:

• Improved cyclone warnings (for public, aviation and marine interests);
• Climate variability and associated seasonal/interannual prediction, particularly of droughts, and cyclone frequency and intensity; and
• Climate change (mainly in relation to climate variability)

Related areas identified for improvement to address these concerns for NMSs were :-

(focussed on common regional needs)

• Observations;
• Communications;
• Infrastructure; and
• Human resources development

Pacific Island NMSs may be grouped into five categories as follows:

The analysis of the needs of users (detailed in Section 2.2) for weather and climate services and products identified the following five common themes:

1. Severe Weather Warnings
2. Climate Information and Prediction Services
3. Upgrade and strengthen observational networks
4. Upgrading telecommunication systems, and
5. Infrastructure and institutional strengthening.

These five themes provide the basis for formulating the proposed development projects recommended in this report. While the need for improvement in aviation and marine weather services were also identified as common themes across the Pacific, these were not specifically singled out as additional broad themes for the purpose of developing separate development projects. However, it should be noted that severe weather warnings rely very heavily on aviation and marine observations, and that severe weather events impact very significantly on aviation and marine operations. Some sub-projects relating to aviation weather services have been included under the severe weather theme. Each theme includes some elements of capacity building and human resource development.

Table 2: Present status of National Meteorological Services of Pacific Island Countries and Territories

1. These countries also get technical maintenance support from the Sub-regional Maintenance Depot, Guam.
2. Guam WFO has three additional technicians to provide support to US-affiliated states.
3. One degree holder on staff, but without professional training.
4. Two degree holders but without professional training.
5. One of the three is an expatriate.
6. The Office of Civil Aviation provides support for major engineering work.
7. No in-house technician (or not fully trained), but support from other organizations (eg. Telecoms) available, sometimes at low priority.

Conclusions

• Large range in capacity to maintain networks/provide services
• Most countries have suffered decline in resources and capacity over last 2 to 3 decades
• Lack of resources for ongoing expenditure a serious problem in many countries
• Main common priority needs across the region- cyclone warnings & climate services (including season/interannual prediction) - other areas (aviation/marine important)
• Upgrading basic observations/communications infrastructure essential for services to be improved
• External assistance vital for improvement